SCOPAC Storm Analysis Study update 2024: Nearshore waves

Introduction

From the SCOPAC Storm Analysis study (2020) undertaken by Dr Matthew Wadey, Professor Ivan Haigh and Naya Inayatillah, we know sea levels are rising and there was a signal of increased storminess identified from the ~15 years worth of data from the National Network of Regional Monitoring Programme nearshore wave buoys in our region. This piece of research is an extension of the 2020 SCOPAC Storm Analysis work. It was commissioned by SCOPAC following some concerning trends identified in the Boscombe and Hayling wave buoy data, indicating continued increased storminess over the past 20 years. 

The update has been undertaken by Dr Matthew Wadey, Dr Thomas Dhoop and Elizabeth Warwick-Champion. Analysis extends the wave climate dataset by almost 5 years, allowing for a 20 year trend analysis of our nearshore wave buoys. The updated research finds for the first time, some statistically significant trends and provides an overview of which winters and events can be considered as extreme. 

The key findings suggest that the central south coast of England has experienced a trend of increased storminess over the past 20 years in the form of increased wave period, swell waves and bi-modal seas, confirming the impacts felt by coastal managers on the ground.

The research highlights the importance of the National Network of Regional Monitoring Programmes continued data collection and raises questions over the implications of these findings to the flood and coastal erosion risk management sector.

The results make a case for ongoing and enhanced investment into flood and coastal erosion risk management. To what extent this trend will continue will be monitored closely over the coming years and we hope to attract funding to repeat the update in 2030 and investigate the significance of these findings further.

Project outputs and deliverables

• A technical report has been produced describing the method and findings (above);
• A presentation on the outcomes of the research project was given on 10th December 2024. The webinar was attended by members of the SCG, SCOPAC and EA/Defra FCERM R&D programme. The presentation* is available at SCOPAC Storm Analysis Update webinar

* The webinar recording is restricted by password to attendees and members